Random denominators and the analysis of ratio data

Ratio data, observations in which one random value is divided by another random value, present unique analytical challenges. The best statistical technique varies depending on the unit on which the inference is based. We present three environmental case studies where ratios are used to compare two groups, and we provide three parametric models from which to simulate ratio data. The models describe situations in which (1) the numerator variance and mean are proportional to the denominator, (2) the numerator mean is proportional to the denominator but its variance is proportional to a quadratic function of the denominator and (3) the numerator and denominator are independent. We compared standard approaches for drawing inference about differences between two distributions of ratios: t-tests, t-tests with transformations, permutation tests, the Wilcoxon rank test, and ANCOVA-based tests. Comparisons between tests were based both on achieving the specified alpha-level and on statistical power. The tests performed comparably with a few notable exceptions. We developed simple guidelines for choosing a test based on the unit of inference and relationship between the numerator and denominator.     

Changes in blood lead and water lead in Edinburgh. An eight year follow-up to the Edinburgh lead study

This study aimed to measure changes in household water lead and blood lead in young people living in Edinburgh over a period of 8 years. Two hundred and twenty-three families were eligible and 207 (93%) agreed to participate. A half-hour stagnation sample of kitchen cold water was taken from each household, and 171 young people (aged 14–17 years) provided a blood sample for lead analysis. Information on plumbing changes, exposure to other sources of lead and factors which might influence blood lead was collected by questionnaire. Edinburgh is supplied with water treated in one of two treatment plants. There was a different programme of water treatment in each plant. In one (A) lime and orthophosphate was introduced in the interval between the original and follow-up studies. In the other (F) lime treatment began before the original study and orthophosphate was introduced subsequently. In water from treatment plant A, mean water lead levels fell from 34 to 4.3 gL-1 (87%). In water supplied from treatment plant F the corresponding values were 9.3 to 3.6 gL-1 (61%). These reductions were due to both water treatment and removal of lead plumbing. Houses with no lead plumbing have water lead levels 89% lower than houses with lead tanks, and 47% lower than houses with lead pipes. About one-third of households with lead tanks are predicted to have water lead levels above the current EC limit of 50 gL- 1, though only 3% or less of the remaining households would exceed this limit. If the proposed 10 gL-1 limit were introduced, 34% of households supplied from plant A and 25% from plant F would breach the limit. Blood lead levels fell from an average of 11.0 gdL-1 to 4.0 gdL-1. Males had higher values than females and the main factors influencing levels were water lead and age of house. Our results show substantial reductions in household water lead and blood lead in our sample over a period of 8 years and represent an important achievement in public health. However, more progress will be required if the proposed new limit of 10 gL-1 for water lead is to be met. There is a need for the continuing surveillance of household water lead and blood lead levels in representative samples of the population.     

Lessons learned from applying adaptation pathways in flood risk management and challenges for the further development of this approach

Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist—a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that “very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers” (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world’s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.     

Convergence and emergence in organizations: An integrative framework and review

In reaction to the growing attention to connecting individual‐level and unit‐level constructs, we first briefly review emergence terminology and theories that address the dynamic process by which a higher‐level phenomenon emerges from lower‐level elements. Next, we review the extant theory and research on emergence and convergence in organization science using an organizing framework that simultaneously considers the content area of lower‐level elements, the emergent factors, and the target of the emergent property. In addition to organizing and bridging current literature on emergence and convergence, gaps of existing research and new directions for future research, including compilation and divergence, are identified. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of developmental metrics for utilization in a pediatric advanced automatic crash notification algorithm

Objective: Appropriate treatment at designated trauma centers (TCs) improves outcomes among injured children after motor vehicle crashes (MVCs). Advanced Automatic Crash Notification (AACN) has shown promise in improving triage to appropriate TCs. Pediatric-specific AACN algorithms have not yet been created. To create such an algorithm, it will be necessary to include some metric of development (age, height, or weight) as a covariate in the injury risk algorithm. This study sought to determine which marker of development should serve as a covariate in such an algorithm and to quantify injury risk at different levels of this metric.

Methods: A retrospective review of occupants age < 19 years within the MVC data set NASS-CDS 2000–2011 was performed. R² values of logistic regression models using age, height, or weight to predict 18 key injury types were compared to determine which metric should be used as a covariate in a pediatric AACN algorithm. Clinical judgment, literature review, and chi-square analysis were used to create groupings of the chosen metric that would discriminate injury patterns. Adjusted odds of particular injury types at the different levels of this metric were calculated from logistic regression while controlling for gender, vehicle velocity change (delta V), belted status (optimal, suboptimal, or unrestrained), and crash mode (rollover, rear, frontal, near-side, or far-side).

Results: NASS-CDS analysis produced 11,541 occupants age < 19 years with nonmissing data. Age, height, and weight were correlated with one another and with injury patterns. Age demonstrated the best predictive power in injury patterns and was categorized into bins of 0–4 years, 5–9 years, 10–14 years, and 15–18 years. Age was a significant predictor of all 18 injury types evaluated even when controlling for all other confounders and when controlling for age- and gender-specific body mass index (BMI) classifications. Adjusted odds of key injury types with respect to these age categorizations revealed that younger children were at increased odds of sustaining Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) 2+ and 3+ head injuries and AIS 3+ spinal injuries, whereas older children were at increased odds of sustaining thoracic fractures, AIS 3+ abdominal injuries, and AIS 2+ upper and lower extremity injuries.

Conclusions: The injury patterns observed across developmental metrics in this study mirror those previously described among children with blunt trauma. This study identifies age as the metric best suited for use in a pediatric AACN algorithm and utilizes 12 years of data to provide quantifiable risks of particular injuries at different levels of this metric. This risk quantification will have important predictive purposes in a pediatric-specific AACN algorithm.     

Social facilitation of exploration in mosquitofish (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Gambusia holbrooki</Emphasis>)

The social environment can exert a powerful influence on the expression of an individual’s behaviour patterns. For example, social facilitation occurs where individuals are more likely to express a given behaviour, or express it a greater rate, in the presence of conspecifics. Social facilitation is partly driven by an individual’s perception of risk, which is a function both of the size of its social group and the information that it gathers relating to predator activity and risk. Here I tested the effects of social group size (one, two, four, eight or 16 fish) and the presence of ‘social’, ‘predation’ or ‘neutral’ chemical cues (derived respectively from live conspecifics, injured conspecifics or a blank water control) on the exploratory behaviour of juvenile mosquitofish (Gambusia holbrooki) in a novel environment. Focal fish in larger groups explored a greater proportion of the arena during the course of the experiment, demonstrating social facilitation of exploration. After 4 h in the arena, focal fish in all group sizes showed significantly reduced swimming activity, suggesting that the initial faster swimming activity of fish on entry to the arena may be in response to the motivation to explore. The presence of predation cues in the environment had the effect of reducing exploratory behaviour across groups in a novel environment, whereas social cues had no effect on exploratory behaviour. Taken as a whole, these results suggest that there is a high degree of context dependency in the expression of exploratory behaviour, with a strong influence of both the presence of conspecifics and cues relating to potential danger.     

The Influence of Varying Planktonic and Periphytic Algal Biomass On Exposure to Polychlorinated Biphenyls in Mesocosms

Algal populations, either suspended in the water column (planktonic) or present on the walls of an enclosure (periphytic), develop differently depending upon the physical scale of the system. This study determined whether these variations altered the speciation and therefore exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in estuarine mesocosms. Exposure was defined as the fraction of applied contaminant taken up by plankton after two hours. Using a three phase equilibrium model, the partitioning of a suite of PCBs within variously-sized mesocosms was predicted using laboratory derived distribution coefficients and measured levels of planktonic and periphytic algal biomass. in mesocosms having large wall surface area to volume ratios, sorption of hydrophobic PCBs to periphyton significantly decreased contaminant exposure. However, within the range of planktonic algal biomasses observed in this study, the regulation of PCB exposure was relatively invariant between variously-sized mesocosms. to minimize sorption of hydrophobic organic contaminants (HOCs) to periphyton and reduce artefacts inherent with this partitioning, we suggest using mesocosms with low wall surface area to volume ratios (less than or equal to 1). in addition, periphytic biomass should be quantified regularly and a three-phase equilibrium approach used to predict the actual exposure concentrations.     

Group structure in a restricted entry system is mediated by both resident and joiner preferences

The benefits of grouping behaviour may not be equally distributed across all individuals within a group, leading to conflict over group membership among established group members, and between residents and outsiders attempting to join a group. Although the interaction between the preferences of joining individuals and existing group members may exert considerable pressure on group structure, empirical work on group living to date has focussed on free entry groups, in which all individuals are permitted entry. Using the humbug damselfish, Dascyllus aruanus, we examined a restricted entry grouping system, in which group residents control membership by aggressively rejecting potential new members. We found that the preferences shown by joining members were not always aligned with strategies that incurred the least harm from resident group members, suggesting a conflict between the preferences of residents and preferences of group joiners. Solitary fish preferred to join familiar groups and groups of size-matched residents. Residents were less aggressive towards familiar group joiners. However, resident aggression towards unfamiliar individuals depended on the size of the joining individual, the size of the resident and the composition of the group. These results demonstrate that animal group structure is mediated by both the preferences of joining individuals and the preferences of residents.     

CAERvest® – a novel endothermic hypothermic device for core temperature cooling: safety and efficacy testing

Introduction. Cooling of the body is used to treat hyperthermic individuals with heatstroke or to depress core temperature below normal for neuroprotection. A novel, chemically activated, unpowered cooling device, CAERvest®, was investigated for safety and efficacy. Methods. Eight healthy male participants (body mass 79.9?±?1.9?kg and body fat percentage 16.1?±?3.8%) visited the laboratory (20 °C, 40% relative humidity) on four occasions. Following 30-min rest, physiological and perceptual measures were recorded. Participants were then fitted with the CAERvest® proof of concept (PoC) or prototype 1 (P1), 2 (P2) or 3 (P3) for 60 min. Temperature, cardiovascular and perceptual measures were recorded every 5 min. After cooling, the CAERvest® was removed and the torso checked for cold-related injuries. Results. Temperature measures significantly (p?Conclusion. This study demonstrates that the CAERvest® is an effective device for reducing body temperature in healthy normothermic individuals without presence of cold injury. Further research in healthy and clinical populations is warranted.